EURARE rapport

This report builds on numerous secondary data sources, including Eurostat, and uses data provided in the REE-reports by Adamas Intelligence (2016) and Roskill (2016) for reference. The purchase of these reports was financed from within resources allotted to WP1. Importantly, each report follows a different methodology in forecasting and assumptions which is reflected in the chapters of this report that draw on the data from these two reports: Chapter 4 draws on data from Roskill (2016) and Chapter 5 and 7 use Adamas Intelligence (2016) for comparison and reference. This background explains divergences in indications on the total REE market volume, both on the demand and supply side, which are also reflective of the uncertainties pertaining to the information accessible on the REE market.

 

The report was drafted in collaboration between GEUS and D’Appolonia; final editing by GEUS.

 

Acknowledgements

We like to acknowledge the input and comments provided by all EURARE partners to this report, and in particular the detailed comments provided by Kathryn Goodenough, BGS-NERC; Martiya Sadeghi, and Nikos Arvanitidis, SGU; Mercedes Regadío, KU Leuven; Gulaim Seisenbaeva, SLU; Bård Bergfald, Fen Minerals; and Thymis Balomenos, and Ioannis Paspaliaris NTUA. Additionally, we want to thank the external experts Claire Claessen, Innovate UK-Knowledge Transfer Network; Dominique Guyonnet, BRGM; Komal Habib, University of Waterloo; Christian Hagelüken, Umicore; and Jessika Luth Richter, IIIEE-Lund University; and Henrik Wenzel, University of Southern Denmark, for their generous contribution.

 

Table of contents

1      Introduction. 15

2      Scope of the report 16

3      On REE exploration and supply – and the potential for a European mine. 17

3.1       Definition of REE.. 17

3.2       Current REE supply. 19

3.2.1       Chinese REE-producers. 19

3.3       REE geology and mineralogy. 23

3.3.1       Importance of REE mineralogy. 25

3.4       Benchmarking REE-exploration projects. 28

3.4.1       Commonly used parameters. 28

3.4.2       Global REE reserves and resources. 29

3.4.3       REE-exploration projects outside China. 31

3.4.4       REE-exploration projects in Europe. 33

3.5       Initial steps in the REE-supply chain. 35

3.5.1       Mining, beneficiation, and cracking (the typical mine site operations) 35

3.5.2       Chemical separation. 36

4      Intermediate REE-industries/industrial sectors. 41

4.1       The REE materials used by the industrial sectors. 42

4.2       Catalysts. 43

4.2.1       Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) catalysts. 44

4.2.2       Automotive catalysts. 45

4.3       Polishing. 46

4.4       Glass. 48

4.5       Phosphors and pigments. 50

4.6       Metallurgy. 52

4.7       Batteries. 54

4.8       Permanent magnets. 55

4.9       Ceramics. 58

4.10         Other applications. 60

5      Global rare earth market 63

5.1       Global demand. 63

5.2       Global production and supply. 64

5.2.1       Chinese domestic industrial policies. 66

5.2.2       Chinese export policies. 68

5.2.3       Other small producers. 73

5.2.4       Recent producers. 74

5.2.5       Other illegal production. 74

6      EU rare earth market 75

6.1       Supply chain segments served by firms in the EU.. 82

6.2       Firms of the EU rare earth industry. 86

7      Forecasting of REE-demand and supply. 102

7.1       The global scenario. 102

7.2       European Technology Platforms, related Organizations and other EU forecast 106

7.2.1       Technological development scenarios. 107

7.2.2       How to reduce the consumption of primary raw materials?. 108

7.3       Development scenarios according to relevant EU policy. 112

7.3.1       Policies affecting the REE-using sector related to wind energy for electricity. 112

7.3.2       The EURARE Scenario. 115

7.3.3       Policies for energy efficient lighting affecting REE-based phosphors. 120

7.3.4       Policies in the transport sector – REE use in components and consumables. 123

7.3.5       REE-recycling from end-of-life vehicles. 130

8      Discussion: Potential EURARE effect on future REE market scenarios. 133

9      Conclusion. 140

10    References. 141

Appendix I 154

Appendix II – Overview of the European REE occurrences and deposits. 157

 

 

 

List of Figures

Figure 3.1. Abundance of chemical elements in the Earth’s upper continental crust…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 18

Figure 3.2. Classifications of REE elements in light REE (LREE) and heavy REE (HREE)…………………………………………………………………………………….. 19

Figure 3.3. Estimated 2015 production in the three REE-regions……………. 20

Figure 3.4. Major REE mining (Adamas, 2015) and advanced REE-exploration projects…………………………………………………………………………… 23

Figure 3.5. Proportions of individual REE concentrations in selected REE-minerals and ores………………………………………………………………………………. 27

Figure 3.6. Value metrics for advanced stage REE- projects………………….. 32

Figure 3.7. Value metrics for advanced stage REE- projects: TREO-grade vs TREO-tonnage………………………………………………………………………………….. 33

Figure 3.8. Number of identified deposit types in Europe………………………. 34

Figure 3.9. Location of REE occurrences, deposits and advanced stage projects in Europe. Details in Appendix II……………………………………………. 35

Figure 3.10. Example of a schematic REE solvent extraction (SX) separation process……………………………………………………………………………………………… 38

Figure 3.11. Generic material supply chain for REEs……………………………. 39

Figure 3.12. Principles in the magnetic nanoparticle separation technology…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 40

Figure 4.1. Simplified REE value chain……………………………………………….. 41

Figure 4.2. Estimated worldwide REO consumption in 2015………………….. 42

Figure 5.1. Total rare earth demand in decade changes (t REO), 1965-2015………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 64

Figure 5.2. Dynamics in the REE mine production from 1983 to 2001……. 65

Figure 5.3 Overview of production and export quota developments, 1980 to 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 67

Figure 5.4. Monthly comparison: REO export volumes and average REO export prices , China………………………………………………………………………….. 71

Figure 5.5. Estimated REO production, and REE-product availability outside China, 2016………………………………………………………………………………………. 72

Figure 6.1. Total EU-import of REE-metals and -compounds, 2000 – 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 75

Figure 6.2. EU-share of import and export of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 76

Figure 6.3. Detailed EU-imports of REE-metals and REE-compounds, 2000 – 2015………………………………………………………………………………………………. 77

Figure 6.4. Product imports per quarterly division between 2013 and 2015. 78

Figure 6.5. REE-product imports in 2016…………………………………………….. 79

Figure 6.6. Share of REE-product type imports in 2016…………………………. 80

Figure 6.7. Intermediate REE-sectoral share in the EU………………………….. 80

Figure 6.8. Indicative sectoral use of REE-imports into the EU between 2013 and 2016…………………………………………………………………………………………… 81

Figure 6.9. Stylized illustration of the REE supply chain segments…………. 85

Figure 6.10. Austria imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 87

Figure 6.11. Belgium and Luxembourg imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………… 88

Figure 6.12. Estonia imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 89

Figure 6.13. France imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 90

Figure 6.14. Germany imports and exports (tons) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………… 91

Figure 6.16. Spain imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 94

Figure 6.17. The Netherlands imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………… 95

Figure 6.18. United Kingdom imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015-…………………………………………………………………………………. 96

Figure 6.19. Russia imports and exports (t) of RE-compounds and metals in 2015…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 98

Figure 7.1. Illustration of the analysed sources……………………………………. 102

Figure 7.2. Three fundamental pillars of megatrends…………………………… 103

Figure 7.3. Energy KETs roadmap…………………………………………………….. 111

Figure 7.4. Annual onshore and offshore, and cumulative installations (GW) in the EU………………………………………………………………………………………… 113

Figure 7.5. Scenario results presented in the Global Wind Energy Outlook, 2016……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 116

Figure 7.6. Modelled forecast scenarios until 2030, including NREAP….. 118

Figure 7.7. Forecast, global and European lighting market and lamp type shares……………………………………………………………………………………………… 122

Figure 7.8. Forecast global and European lighting market demand for the five REOs……………………………………………………………………………………….. 122

Figure 7.9. EU motor vehicle production by type………………………………… 123

Figure 7.10. Motor vehicle and passenger car production and passenger car registration in 2015………………………………………………………………………….. 124

Figure 7.11. EU-27 division of car technologies on the market in 2014…. 124

Figure 7.12. Technology types among the EU production of passenger cars………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 126

Figure 7.13. Example of battery alloy based on commercial AB₅-type alloy………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 127

Figure 7.14. Forecast REE metal content (kg) in HEV roll-out between 2020 and 2030…………………………………………………………………………………………. 128

Figure 7.15. Road fuel demand in the EU, 2014………………………………….. 129

Figure 7.16. Average refinery output by product type in OECD Europe… 130

Figure 7.17. Vehicle park development in Europe – 2013……………………. 131

Figure 8.1. Developments of FOB China prices from 2007 to 2016………. 135

Figure 8.2. Estimated annual TREO production from EURARE partner projects…………………………………………………………………………………………… 136

Figure 8.3. Estimate of the annual TREO production from six global projects…………………………………………………………………………………………… 136

Figure 8.4. Estimated annual TREO production EURARE and global advanced projects……………………………………………………………………………. 137

Figure 8.5. Comparison of REE-demand forecast and potential European REO production………………………………………………………………………………. 138

 

List of Tables

Table 3.1. Variation in REE mine production statistics (2014) 24

Table 3.2.World REE-mining companies. 25

Table 3.3. Most common REE minerals. 29

Table 3.4. Estimates of the global TREO tonnage. 33

Table 3.5. Overview of advanced stage global REE-projects by assessment parameters. 34

Table 4.1. REE used for FCC.. 47

Table 4.2. The FCC market trends/expectations/emerging markets. 47

Table 4.3. The REE substitution in the FCC sector 48

Table 4.4. REE recycling in the FCC sector 48

Table 4.5. REE used for automotive catalysts. 48

Table 4.6. The automotive catalysts market trends/expectations/emerging markets. 49

Table 4.7. REE substitution in the automotive catalysts sector 49

Table 4.8. REE recycling in the automotive catalysts sector 49

Table 4.9. REE used in the polishing sector 50

Table 4.10. Market trends/expectations/emerging markets in the polishing sector 50

Table 4.11. REE used for the glass sector 51

Table 4.12.REE used in the phosphors sector 53

Table 4.13. Market trends/expectations/emerging markets in the phosphors sector 53

Table 4.14. REE used in the pigments sector 54

Table 4.15. Consumption of REE for the metallurgical sector 55

Table 4.16. Consumption of REE in the batteries sector 57

Table 4.17. Consumption of REE in the permanent magnets sector 59

Table 4.18. The REE substitution in the permanent magnet sector 60

Table 4.19. Recovery/recycling of REE in the permanent magnet sector 60

Table 4.20. Consumption of REE in the ceramic sector 61

Table 4.21. Consumption of REE in miscellaneous sectors. 63

Table 5.1. Rare earth mineral and separation plan. 69

Table 5.2. China’s rare earth export policies in different periods. 70

Table 5.3. Export taxes. 71

Table 5.4. WTO case and ruling of the Dispute Settlement Body’s Appellate Body. 72

Table 5.5. FOB sales prices of REE product exports from China, October 2016. 74

Table 6.1.Eurostat codes. 79

Table 7.1: Megatrends “Biosphere and natural resources” – REEs consumption. 106

Table 7.2: Megatrends “Global economy, innovation and new technol.” – REEs consumption. 107

Table 7.3. Generator typologies and their REE-consumption. 114

Table 7.4. Installation forecast for scenarios, regional breakdown of capacity (in GW) 117

Table 7.5. Offshore technology split with PM content of Pr, Nd, Tb and Dy. 119

Table 7.6. Forecast scenarios of capacity installations. 120

Table 7.7. Forecast of REO demand for the 40 GW installations until 2020. 121

Table 7.8. Forecast of REO demand for the 146 GW installations until 2030. 121

Table 7.9. Approximate REO content (g/unit) of various energy-efficient light types. 123

Table 7.10. Countries with a National Association of Automotive Recyclers. 133